Karviná 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Town Stadium Karvina to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Town Stadium Karvina, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Karviná, 1.30 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Karviná 1W, Teplice 2W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 60% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 63% | Teplice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.46 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.890 / defence 1.042 | Teplice attack 0.819 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.209. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Karviná games / 35 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.70. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 50% | Teplice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Karviná 1.46 / Teplice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.890 / def 1.042 | Teplice attack 0.819 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Karviná (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 4 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
Record (7 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 4 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Karviná and Teplice in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.89x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.82x) against Karviná's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.81
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.49
1.03
Teplice xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Karviná and 1.03 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 14W 8D 16L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Karviná against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Teplice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.39 PPG; Teplice away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 44%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 44% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games; Teplice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Karviná's recent matches and 56% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 44% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Teplice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Teplice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karviná run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Teplice 4-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.46 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Teplice attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 63%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.32 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.