Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovan Liberec (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Slovan Liberec meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 3W 2D 5L at Town Stadium Karvina — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Karviná are significantly better at Town Stadium Karvina than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.80 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Slovan Liberec, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–6 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slovan Liberec have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Slovan Liberec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 64% | Slovan Liberec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.03 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.836 / defence 1.237 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.002 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.205. Data: 57 Karviná games / 57 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 46%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Slovan Liberec 2.17. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 70% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 25% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Karviná 1.03 / Slovan Liberec 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.836 / def 1.237 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.002 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Karviná 3 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 25% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Karviná and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Record (7 meetings): Karviná 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 5W.
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.84) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.00x) against Karviná's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
25%
4.06
29%
3.44
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.53
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
18.09
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Karviná and 1.49 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná's recent record stands at 21W 11D 27L from 59 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 18L across 59 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Karviná against 1.47 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 10W 6D 13L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.47 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 21W 11D 27L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 23W 18D 18L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Karviná's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.24 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 55%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Karviná) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 31%; Karviná have failed to score in 31% of games; Slovan Liberec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Karviná's recent matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Karviná's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Slovan Liberec 3-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.03 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 25% | Draw 29% | Slovan Liberec 46%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 64%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.25 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.