Karviná 1-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Městský Stadión this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Karviná 0W, Sigma Olomouc 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Sigma Olomouc 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 46% | Sigma Olomouc 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.12 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.875 / defence 1.354 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.753 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.151. Data: 24 Karviná games / 24 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 37%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 80% | Sigma Olomouc 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Karviná 1.12 / Sigma Olomouc 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.875 / def 1.354 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.753 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Karviná 1 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 34% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Karviná and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.75x) against Karviná's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.52
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.29
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Karviná and 1.17 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 24 games, going 1W 7D 16L for 0.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 0W 6D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 7D 16L in their last 24 games (0.42 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.50 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
6
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 83%, Sigma Olomouc 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Karviná) and 42% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Karviná's games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Karviná's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 1-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.12 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 1.35 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 34% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 37%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 46%, Sigma Olomouc 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.