Karviná 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Mlada Boleslav meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Karviná (all games): 0W 4D 5L across 9 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.44 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 0W 3D 1L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.89. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.44 vs 0.89 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Karviná register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Mlada Boleslav in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 67% and Mlada Boleslav 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 44% | Mlada Boleslav 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.48 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.943 / defence 1.360 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.696 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.323. Data: 9 Karviná games / 9 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 100% | Mlada Boleslav 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Karviná 1.48 / Mlada Boleslav 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.943 / def 1.360 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.696 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Karviná (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mlada Boleslav xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Karviná 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 42% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Karviná and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.89 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.94) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.70x) against Karviná's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.93
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Karviná and 1.25 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 0W 4D 5L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 5L across 9 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.67 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mlada Boleslav in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Karviná's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.75 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
4
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Karviná, 75% for Mlada Boleslav — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Karviná's games and 75% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Karviná 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Karviná 0-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.48 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.94 / defence 1.36 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 44%, Mlada Boleslav 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.