Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Zlin meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Zlin (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zlin have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Hradec Králové, 0.90 for Zlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hradec Králové 2W, Zlin 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Zlin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.23 xG and Zlin 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.872 / defence 0.701 | Zlin attack 0.707 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.414. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Hradec Králové games / 38 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 36% | Zlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 2.78 | Zlin 5.56. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hradec Králové 50% | Zlin 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 36% | Zlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Hradec Králové 1.23 / Zlin 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.872 / def 0.701 | Zlin attack 0.707 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Zlin xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Zlin kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Hradec Králové 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Zlin part of?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Zlin a 18% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hradec Králové and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.87) and Zlin's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.71x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.17
36%
2.81
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
1.93
0.70
Zlin xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.70 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 14W 15D 14L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 10W 13D 20L from 43 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.00 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 14W 15D 14L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Zlin away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Zlin away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won 4-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 52%, Zlin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hradec Králové) and 48% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 57% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 48% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Zlin tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hradec Králové's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 9, as Hradec Králové and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.23 xG and Zlin 0.70 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 0.70 against Zlin attack 0.71 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 36% | Zlin 18%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.