Hradec Králové 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Teplice — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hradec Králové at 1.00 PPG versus Teplice's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 1, Teplice 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Teplice trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Teplice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Teplice 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.73 xG and Teplice 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / defence 1.129 | Teplice attack 0.987 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Data: 42 Hradec Králové games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 3.33. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Hradec Králové 1.73 / Teplice 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / def 1.129 | Teplice attack 0.987 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.97x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.25
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.07
1.34
Teplice xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.34 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 16W 8D 22L from 46 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 20L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.22 PPG, Teplice on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 9W 2D 11L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 6W 3D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.15 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 8D 22L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.32 PPG; Teplice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Teplice 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Hradec Králové and 77% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 68% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 77% of Teplice's.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Teplice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.73 xG and Teplice 1.34 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Teplice attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 30%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Teplice 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.22 PPG, Teplice 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.