Hradec Králové 0-4 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Middle Play-offs - Final sees Slovan Liberec travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovan Liberec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 0, Slovan Liberec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slovan Liberec trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Slovan Liberec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 53% | Slovan Liberec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.719 / defence 1.220 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.881 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Hradec Králové's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Hradec Králové games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Slovan Liberec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Hradec Králové 1.14 / Slovan Liberec 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.719 / def 1.220 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.881 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Hradec Králové 0 - 4 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec is a Middle Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 30% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.34
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.70
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.34 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 22W 17D 25L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 28L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.30 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 7D 11L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 22W 17D 25L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.48 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 52%, Slovan Liberec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hradec Králové) and 55% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 55% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 0-4 at Stadion u Nisy, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.72 / defence 1.22 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 40%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 53%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.