Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Slovácko meet at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Hradec Králové have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovácko (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Hradec Králové. A 0.60 PPG lead over Slovácko (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) — Hradec Králové have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slovácko in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Slovácko have the stronger record — 3 wins to Hradec Králové's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Hradec Králové 0–0 Slovácko — a draw.
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Slovácko 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 48% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.67 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.982 / defence 0.902 | Slovácko attack 0.999 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.283. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 57 games and Slovácko's last 57.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.07 | Draw 3.82 | Slovácko 3.93. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Hradec Králové carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.67 / Slovácko 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.982 / def 0.902 | Slovácko attack 0.999 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Slovácko xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, Slovácko a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.98x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (1.00x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 57 games and Slovácko's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.82
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.83
1.16
Slovácko xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.16 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hradec Králové come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 15D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.44 PPG from 61 outings (24W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.44 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hradec Králové's home form reads 12W 6D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 8D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.21 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovácko away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.40 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Slovácko in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won Slovácko 1-5 Hradec Králové on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 53%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slovácko in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 73% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.67 xG and Slovácko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 48%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.28 PPG, Slovácko 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.