Hradec Králové 1-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Slavia Praha travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.70 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 1 for Slavia Praha and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slavia Praha trading profile (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 49% versus Slavia Praha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 46% | Slavia Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.00 xG and Slavia Praha 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.944 / defence 0.819 | Slavia Praha attack 1.108 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Hradec Králové games / 59 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 37%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Slavia Praha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 60% | Slavia Praha 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Hradec Králové 1.00 / Slavia Praha 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.944 / def 0.819 | Slavia Praha attack 1.108 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Slavia Praha xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 30% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
30%
3.31
33%
3.05
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.14
1.14
Slavia Praha xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.14 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 45W 12D 6L across 63 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 16W 9D 5L across 30 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.51 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 45W 12D 6L in their last 63 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.40 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 53%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Hradec Králové 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.00 xG and Slavia Praha 1.14 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.69, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 46%, Slavia Praha 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.