Hradec Králové 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.30 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 55% versus Sigma Olomouc 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Sigma Olomouc 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / defence 0.937 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.942 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.354. Data: 34 Hradec Králové games / 34 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 32%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 60% | Sigma Olomouc 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Hradec Králové 1.34 / Sigma Olomouc 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / def 0.937 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.942 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 12W 13D 13L from 38 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.29 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 56%, Sigma Olomouc 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hradec Králové) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 33% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 32%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 50%, Sigma Olomouc 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.29 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.