Hradec Králové 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mlada Boleslav travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hradec Králové at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 0.80 (Mlada Boleslav). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Hradec Králové's games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's (from Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Hradec Králové 1–5 Mlada Boleslav — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 51% | Mlada Boleslav 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hradec Králové surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Mlada Boleslav have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.995 / defence 1.114 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.074 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 51 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 51.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.41 | Draw 4.02 | Mlada Boleslav 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.68 / Mlada Boleslav 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.995 / def 1.114 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.074 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 51 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.41
25%
4.02
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.49 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 13D 23L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 17W 15D 21L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.21 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 5D 12L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 4D 14L from their last 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.43 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 15D 21L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.23 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 5-1 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 58%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hradec Králové's games and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 69% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hradec Králové's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 22, as Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 34%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 51%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.21 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.