Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malsovicka arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus FK Jablonec 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 48% | FK Jablonec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.979 / defence 1.156 | FK Jablonec attack 0.879 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.170. Data: 41 Hradec Králové games / 41 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 32% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 35%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | FK Jablonec 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 32% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Hradec Králové 1.14 / FK Jablonec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.979 / def 1.156 | FK Jablonec attack 0.879 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Hradec Králové 1 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec part of?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 32% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.98x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
32%
3.11
33%
3.02
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.33
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.19 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 20W 11D 15L from 46 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 16L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.54 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 10W 2D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 21W 9D 16L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or FK Jablonec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.91 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, FK Jablonec 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hradec Králové) and 30% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 39%; FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 26% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 30% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Hradec Králové 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Hradec Králové 1-2 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.14 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against FK Jablonec attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 32% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 35%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 48%, FK Jablonec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.54 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.