FK Jablonec 1-0 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zbrojovka Brno away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, FK Jablonec have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 69% and Zbrojovka Brno 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FK Jablonec 69% | Zbrojovka Brno 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.82 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.995 / defence 1.019 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.753 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 30 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 18%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Zbrojovka Brno 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Zbrojovka Brno 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.82 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.995 / def 1.019 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.753 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zbrojovka Brno xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 56% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 0 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.99) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.93
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.78
0.96
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
3%
33.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.96 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 9W 10D 13L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 17L across 32 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.16 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 5W 7D 4L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.25 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.38 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
0
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FK Jablonec at 69%, Zbrojovka Brno at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FK Jablonec and 62% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FK Jablonec's games and 62% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FK Jablonec's matches and 62% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do FK Jablonec and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Zbrojovka Brno 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Zbrojovka Brno 1-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.82 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.96 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Zbrojovka Brno landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 56% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 18%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 69%, Zbrojovka Brno 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.16 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.