FK Jablonec 0-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 4D 2L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Teplice (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 0W 1D 8L from 9 away games — 0.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Teplice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Teplice 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Teplice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.674 / defence 1.088 | Teplice attack 0.746 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.304. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.591 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 FK Jablonec games / 17 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.70. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Teplice 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.49 / Teplice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.674 / def 1.088 | Teplice attack 0.746 / def 1.591 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Teplice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Teplice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
FK Jablonec 0 - 2 Teplice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Teplice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.75x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.85
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.06
Teplice xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.06 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 7D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.47 PPG from 17 outings (2W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.12 points per game from 8 outings (0W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.00 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Teplice have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Teplice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.25 PPG; Teplice away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Teplice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (FK Jablonec) and 88% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FK Jablonec's games and 62% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of FK Jablonec's matches and 88% of Teplice's.
Do FK Jablonec and Teplice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Teplice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat FK Jablonec 0-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Teplice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against Teplice attack 0.75 / defence 1.59, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Teplice 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.47. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.