FK Jablonec 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sigma Olomouc in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 60% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.35 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.832 / defence 1.076 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.139 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 43 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 35% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 39%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 35% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FK Jablonec 1.35 / Sigma Olomouc 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.832 / def 1.076 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.139 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 35% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.14x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.95
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.79
1.44
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.44 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 12W 15D 21L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 15L across 48 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 7W 9D 7L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.56 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 12W 15D 21L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 14D 15L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.30 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 61%, Sigma Olomouc 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 48% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FK Jablonec's games and 56% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 14, as FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.35 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.44 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 35% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 39%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.