FK Jablonec 0-3 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FK Jablonec 0W, Bohemians 1905 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 49% versus Bohemians 1905 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 29% | Bohemians 1905 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.899 / defence 0.970 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.918 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.144. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Bohemians 1905 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG FK Jablonec 1.36 / Bohemians 1905 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.899 / def 0.970 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.918 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 0 - 3 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.92x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.41
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.38
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.02 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 35 games, going 6W 16D 13L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. FK Jablonec haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (10W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. Bohemians 1905 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.11 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 4W 9D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.31 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Pre-Season
Bohemians 1905
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 16D 13L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.17 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Bohemians 1905 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (FK Jablonec) and 61% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 28% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FK Jablonec's games and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 61% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians 1905 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-3 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 29%, Bohemians 1905 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.97 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.