FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Bohemians 1905 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 43% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.63 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 1.258 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 42 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 37%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG FK Jablonec 1.63 / Bohemians 1905 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / def 1.258 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Bohemians 1905 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.02x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.70
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.27
1.64
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.64 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 7D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.27 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 20W 7D 17L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.64 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 59%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FK Jablonec) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.