FK Jablonec 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Baník Ostrava have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.20 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FK Jablonec have won 2, Baník Ostrava 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–0 Baník Ostrava — a FK Jablonec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus Baník Ostrava 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Baník Ostrava 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Baník Ostrava have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / defence 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.035 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.217. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 56 games and Baník Ostrava's last 56.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.78 | Draw 3.67 | Baník Ostrava 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.36 / Baník Ostrava 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.043 / def 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.035 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.04) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 56 games and Baník Ostrava's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.67
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.74
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.38 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 25L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 25L across 61 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 12D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.49 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.40 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 7, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Baník Ostrava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 63% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out FK Jablonec 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat FK Jablonec 2-3 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.36 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 36% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 37%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.11 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.