České Budějovice 2-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slavia Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 4W 0D 2L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 4W 1D 1L from 6 away outings — 2.17 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — České Budějovice 60% and Slavia Praha 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (České Budějovice 60% | Slavia Praha 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.24 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.937 / defence 1.085 | Slavia Praha attack 1.146 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.321. Data: 11 České Budějovice games / 10 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 29% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 47%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 2.13. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 50% | Slavia Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 29% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG České Budějovice 1.24 / Slavia Praha 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.937 / def 1.085 | Slavia Praha attack 1.146 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 29% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both České Budějovice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.15x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
29%
3.46
24%
4.11
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.64 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 3W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.70 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Slavia Praha in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.80 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-1 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 60%, Slavia Praha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for České Budějovice and 60% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of České Budějovice's games and 60% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of České Budějovice's matches and 60% of Slavia Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 12, as České Budějovice and Slavia Praha drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.24 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 29% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 47%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Slavia Praha 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.