České Budějovice 0-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Hradec Králové at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 5W 0D 5L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against České Budějovice's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–5 with Hradec Králové winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hradec Králové have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 51% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Hradec Králové 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.797 / defence 1.079 | Hradec Králové attack 0.744 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.211. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 České Budějovice games / 47 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 60% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG České Budějovice 1.26 / Hradec Králové 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.797 / def 1.079 | Hradec Králové attack 0.744 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hradec Králové xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
České Budějovice 0 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové part of?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 43% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both České Budějovice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.51
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.23
0.97
Hradec Králové xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.97 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 14W 6D 29L from 49 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 22L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 0.98 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 10W 2D 12L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 29L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Hradec Králové away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.33 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 46%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's.
Do České Budějovice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 0-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 0.97 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 43% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 29%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Hradec Králové 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.98 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.