České Budějovice 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates České Budějovice at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

České Budějovice at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians 1905 away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.10 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours České Budějovice, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Bohemians 1905 — Bohemians 1905 have 1 win, with 1 draw.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended České Budějovice 0–0 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives České Budějovice an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 55% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Bohemians 1905 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.75 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.045 / defence 1.062 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.982 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 60 games and Bohemians 1905's last 60.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 3.92 | Bohemians 1905 3.51. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (České Budějovice 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 80% (last 10 away games).

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