Dukla Praha 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Slavia Praha at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dukla Praha's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Slavia Praha have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Slavia Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Dukla Praha 0–3 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 50% versus Slavia Praha 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 46% | Slavia Praha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.71 xG and Slavia Praha 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / defence 1.219 | Slavia Praha attack 1.213 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.128. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.680 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dukla Praha's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slavia Praha's projected output up. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 26 games and Slavia Praha's last 56.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 14% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 59%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 7.02 | Draw 3.76 | Slavia Praha 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 70% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 14% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Dukla Praha 0.71 / Slavia Praha 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.680 / def 1.219 | Slavia Praha attack 1.213 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Slavia Praha xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Dukla Praha 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 14% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 26 games and Slavia Praha's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
14%
7.02
27%
3.76
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.38
1.67
Slavia Praha xG
7.02
14%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
3%
37.27
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.67 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 26 games, going 4W 8D 14L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.62 PPG from 26 outings (22W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.85 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across their last 13 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.23 points per game from their last 13 away games (9W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.04 scored and 0.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha in 27%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 22W 2D 2L in their last 26 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 0.92 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 3-0 Dukla Praha.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Dukla Praha 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 62%, Slavia Praha 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dukla Praha) and 38% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 31% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 38% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 62% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dukla Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 27, as Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.71 xG and Slavia Praha 1.67 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Slavia Praha attack 1.21 / defence 0.74, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 14% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 59%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 46%, Slavia Praha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.