Bohemians 1905 1-5 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.71 conceded. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 5W 1D 0L across 6 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.67 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.38 PPG clear of the hosts (2.67 vs 1.29). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 83% and Slavia Praha 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 83% | Slavia Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.52 xG and Slavia Praha 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.086 / defence 1.282 | Slavia Praha attack 1.112 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.207. Data: 7 Bohemians 1905 games / 6 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 43%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Slavia Praha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 100% | Slavia Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.52 / Slavia Praha 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.086 / def 1.282 | Slavia Praha attack 1.112 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 5 Slavia Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.11x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
34%
2.93
23%
4.32
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.24
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.72 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games, 2.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.83 conceded. Bohemians 1905's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.33 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Bohemians 1905, 67% for Slavia Praha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bohemians 1905 and 67% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bohemians 1905's games and 67% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 67% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-5 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.52 xG and Slavia Praha 1.72 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 23% | Slavia Praha 43%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 83%, Slavia Praha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.