Bohemians 1905 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bohemians 1905, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 58% versus Sigma Olomouc 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Sigma Olomouc 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.881 / defence 1.186 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.020 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.348. Sigma Olomouc's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Bohemians 1905 games / 41 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 49%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 2.04. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sigma Olomouc 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.02 / Sigma Olomouc 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.881 / def 1.186 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.020 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sigma Olomouc xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 21% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
21%
4.79
30%
3.32
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.65
1.63
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
24.43
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.63 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 11D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (15W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.23 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 59%, Sigma Olomouc 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bohemians 1905) and 41% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 32% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 41% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 12, as Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.02 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.63 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 21% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 49%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Sigma Olomouc 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.24 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.