Bohemians 1905 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Karviná (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 1W 0D 6L from 7 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Karviná 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 4–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 36% versus Karviná 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 36% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.57 xG and Karviná 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.863 / defence 1.067 | Karviná attack 0.745 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.133. Data: 44 Bohemians 1905 games / 14 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Karviná 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 4.55. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Karviná 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Karviná 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.57 / Karviná 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.863 / def 1.067 | Karviná attack 0.745 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Karviná xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance of winning, Karviná a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.86) and Karviná's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.74x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.94
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.47
0.90
Karviná xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
5%
22.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.90 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 5W 2D 7L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 4W 1D 9L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.93 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karviná's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Karviná have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.14 PPG; Karviná away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 57%, Karviná 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bohemians 1905) and 57% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 43% of games; Karviná in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bohemians 1905's games and 57% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 57% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Karviná in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Karviná 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.57 xG and Karviná 0.90 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Karviná attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Karviná 22%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 36%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.21 PPG, Karviná 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.