Baník Ostrava 3-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Slavia Praha travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 5W 2D 1L this season (8 games, 2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 1L across 9 road games this term (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.44 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slavia Praha — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 72% versus Slavia Praha 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 72% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG and Slavia Praha 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.323 / defence 1.192 | Slavia Praha attack 1.189 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.293. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Baník Ostrava games / 18 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 45%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Slavia Praha 2.22. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 88% | Slavia Praha 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.55 / Slavia Praha 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.323 / def 1.192 | Slavia Praha attack 1.189 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Slavia Praha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 33% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.32) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
33%
3.03
22%
4.45
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.39
1.83
Slavia Praha xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
5%
18.96
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.83 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 5D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.61 PPG from 18 outings (15W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.67 scored and 0.61 conceded. Baník Ostrava's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 (2.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slavia Praha away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.12 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 88%, Slavia Praha at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Baník Ostrava and 62% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Baník Ostrava's games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 62% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 19, as Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG and Slavia Praha 1.83 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.32 / defence 1.19 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 33% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 72%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.