Baník Ostrava 2-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 4W 0D 2L from 6 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 2.20 for Plzen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Plzen — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 69% versus Plzen 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 62% | Plzen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Plzen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.217 / defence 1.106 | Plzen attack 0.679 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.270. Data: 13 Baník Ostrava games / 14 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 27% | Plzen 25%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 4.00. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 83% | Plzen 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 27% | Plzen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.43 / Plzen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.217 / def 1.106 | Plzen attack 0.679 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Plzen xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 48% chance of winning, Plzen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.22x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (0.68x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.73
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.38
0.95
Plzen xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.95 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.38 PPG from 13 outings (10W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.62 scored and 0.69 conceded. Baník Ostrava's scoring rate against Plzen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Plzen have gone 10W 1D 2L in their last 13 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.17 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Plzen in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 83%, Plzen 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Baník Ostrava) and 17% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 50%; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 17% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 17% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Plzen in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Plzen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 15, as Baník Ostrava and Plzen drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Plzen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.22 / defence 1.11 against Plzen attack 0.68 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 27% | Plzen 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 62%, Plzen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.