Yunnan Yukun 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Yunnan Yukun (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1W, Qingdao Youth Island 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Qingdao Youth Island 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Qingdao Youth Island 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.80 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.046 / defence 1.105 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.020 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.216. Data: 43 Yunnan Yukun games / 43 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.45. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.80 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.046 / def 1.105 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.020 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Qingdao Youth Island xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 1.05x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (1.02x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.26
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.18
1.37
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.37 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 11W 9D 10L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.33 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.87 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yunnan Yukun) and 53% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Yunnan Yukun's recent games and 53% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Yunnan Yukun 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Yunnan Yukun 2-3 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.80 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.37 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Qingdao Youth Island 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.