Yunnan Yukun 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Hangzhou Greentown.

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Fixture Analysis

Yunnan Yukun welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Yunnan Yukun — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.30 (Hangzhou Greentown). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 60% of Hangzhou Greentown's (from Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Jul 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 1–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Yunnan Yukun in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Yunnan Yukun surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Hangzhou Greentown surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Yunnan Yukun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.51 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.217 / defence 1.231 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.918 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.180. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Yunnan Yukun's projected output up. Yunnan Yukun's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 39 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 39.

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 63% | Draw 18% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.59 | Draw 5.49 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.32. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.51 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 60% (last 10 away games).

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