Wuhan Zall 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Zall welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Jinzhou Stadium in Super League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Zall at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Shanghai Shenhua's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of Wuhan Zall's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's (from Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jun 2022, ended Wuhan Zall 0–2 Shanghai Shenhua — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Zall in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 61% versus Shanghai Shenhua 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 48% | Shanghai Shenhua 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.50 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.012 / defence 1.235 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.225 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.147. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.74. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 23 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 23.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 3.04 | Draw 4.18 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 100% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 July 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Wuhan Zall 1.50 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.012 / def 1.235 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.225 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Shanghai Shenhua xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Tuesday 12 July 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Wuhan Zall 2 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 33% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (1.01) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Zall's last 23 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
33%
3.04
24%
4.18
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
3.23
1.74
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.25
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.74 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 11D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (16W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 15 away games (6W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.58 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Wuhan Zall (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 16W 9D 6L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.20 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 July 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 July 2022: Wuhan Zall 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Zall at 87%, Shanghai Shenhua at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wuhan Zall) and 40% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Wuhan Zall's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.50 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.74 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 48%, Shanghai Shenhua 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.