Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Qingdao Youth Island are 0.60 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 62% and Qingdao Youth Island 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 58% | Qingdao Youth Island 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.25 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.839 / defence 0.918 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.778 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 53 Wuhan Three Towns games / 55 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 42% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 42% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.25 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.839 / def 0.918 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.778 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Qingdao Youth Island xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 42% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.78x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 53/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.42
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.25
1.00
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 11W 16D 26L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 17W 22D 14L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Qingdao Youth Island are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Three Towns.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 9D 10L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.21 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 16D 26L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 17W 22D 14L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.23 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 58%, Qingdao Youth Island 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 46% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 58% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 46% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 2-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.25 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 42% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 29%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 58%, Qingdao Youth Island 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Qingdao Youth Island arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.