Wuhan Three Towns 6-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Wuhan Three Towns welcome Guangzhou Evergrande FC to Puwan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 June 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.01 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.873 / defence 1.150 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.044 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.346. Data: 1 Wuhan Three Towns games / 15 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 24% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.96. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Jun 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 24% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.01 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.873 / def 1.150 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.044 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 08:30 on Tuesday 7 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Wuhan Three Towns 6 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 24% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (0.87) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
24%
4.21
25%
4.03
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.63
1.62
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.62 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 6-0 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.01 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.62 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 24% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 51%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.