Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 0D 1L this season (8 games, 2.62 PPG). They are averaging 4.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Wuhan Three Towns's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (20 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (20 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 60% versus Dalian Aerbin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 80% | Dalian Aerbin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.77 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.793 / defence 1.170 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.956 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.284. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.793 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Wuhan Three Towns games / 34 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 65% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 18%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Dalian Aerbin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.77 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 62% | Dalian Aerbin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 65% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 72% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.77 / Dalian Aerbin 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.793 / def 1.170 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.956 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Dalian Aerbin xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 65% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.79x league average) is weighed against Dalian Aerbin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.77. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.96x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 20/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
65%
1.53
17%
5.82
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
4.21
1.44
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
6%
15.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
1%
90.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.44 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 16W 2D 2L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 6W 7D 7L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2.57 PPG from 7 outings (6W 0D 1L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.95 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 16W 2D 2L in their last 20 games (2.50 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.57 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-0 on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 71%, Dalian Aerbin 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Three Towns and 57% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 86% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 43% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 57% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Aerbin 4-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.77 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.44 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.79 / defence 1.17 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 65% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 18%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 80%, Dalian Aerbin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (20 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (20 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.