Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 2.00 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 46% | Hangzhou Greentown 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / defence 0.883 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.151 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.305. Data: 34 Tianjin Teda games / 34 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Hangzhou Greentown 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.22 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / def 0.883 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.151 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 31% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
31%
3.21
33%
3.07
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.33 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 16W 7D 12L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 18W 12D 5L from 35 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.57 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 8W 7D 3L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.77 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 44%, Hangzhou Greentown 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tianjin Teda) and 39% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.22 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 31% | Draw 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 46%, Hangzhou Greentown 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.57 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.