Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Shenzhen Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Shenzhen Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 4–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.73 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.942 / defence 1.052 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.923 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.323. Data: 44 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 44 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 48% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.45. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 48% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.73 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.942 / def 1.052 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.923 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 48% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (4 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.23
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.01
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.28 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 11D 34L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.90 PPG from 60 outings (13W 15D 32L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 10W 6D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.50 points per game from 30 outings (3W 6D 21L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.20 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.73 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 48% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.