Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Henan Jianye.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to Longquanyi Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Jul 2024, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Henan Jianye — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Henan Jianye 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Henan Jianye 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.46 xG and Henan Jianye 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.039 / defence 1.295 | Henan Jianye attack 0.762 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.516. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 34 games and Henan Jianye's last 34.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.86 | Draw 3.52 | Henan Jianye 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 40% (last 10 away games).

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