Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin meet at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.90 for Dalian Aerbin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% versus Dalian Aerbin 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Dalian Aerbin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.861 / defence 1.129 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 14 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 33%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Dalian Aerbin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Dalian Aerbin 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 / Dalian Aerbin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.861 / def 1.129 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dalian Aerbin xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:30 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.86x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.84x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.21
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.53
1.23
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.23 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (5W 1D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.80 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.85 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 14L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.50 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 60% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 40% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 60% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Dalian Aerbin 2-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 33%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Dalian Aerbin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.05 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.