Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Wuhan Three Towns arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 2 for Wuhan Three Towns and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2022, ended 0–4 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% versus Wuhan Three Towns 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61% | Wuhan Three Towns 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.97 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.299 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.313 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.297. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 47 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 7.14 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.97 / Wuhan Three Towns 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.858 / def 1.299 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.313 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 14% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.31x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.21.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
14%
7.00
21%
4.68
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
3.19
2.21
Wuhan Three Towns xG
7.00
14%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
11%
9.13
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
63.96
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.21 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 5D 29L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 2.00 PPG from 46 outings (27W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 7W 2D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 2.17 points per game from 23 outings (15W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.30 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 5D 29L in their last 46 games (0.89 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 27W 11D 8L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 5-1 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 44%, Wuhan Three Towns 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 61% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 39%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 56% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 61% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-3 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.97 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.21 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.31 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%, Wuhan Three Towns 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.