Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Wuhua Hengpi Football Town to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 June 2022, 09:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.029 / defence 0.983 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.729 / away 1.442. Data: 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 0 Chengdu Better City games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 44%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Chengdu Better City 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 / Chengdu Better City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.029 / def 0.983 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.729 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 09:30 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 26% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
26%
3.79
30%
3.37
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.07
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.21 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Early Season
Chengdu Better City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2023, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 0% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shenzhen Ruby FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chengdu Better City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Chengdu Better City 2-0 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chengdu Better City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Chengdu Better City 44%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 0%, Chengdu Better City 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Chengdu Better City managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.