SHANGHAI SIPG 1-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye meet at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.70 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 41% versus Henan Jianye 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 45% | Henan Jianye 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.233 / defence 0.582 | Henan Jianye attack 0.962 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.392. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.582 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 5.26. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 20% | Henan Jianye 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 / Henan Jianye 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.233 / def 0.582 | Henan Jianye attack 0.962 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 54% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.23) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.96x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.64
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.28
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.78 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 10D 11L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.57 PPG from 49 outings (21W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.57 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 17W 3D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.35 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Henan Jianye in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 28W 10D 11L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 21W 14D 14L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Henan Jianye away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.12 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 21% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 33% (Henan Jianye) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 29% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 42%; Henan Jianye in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 33% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 29% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SHANGHAI SIPG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-3 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.23 / defence 0.58 against Henan Jianye attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, Henan Jianye 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.