SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F meet at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 December 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Current Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this season: 6W 1D 0L from 7 home games — 2.71 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 7 home games (86%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou R&F (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F away from home this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guangzhou R&F's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in just 14% of their matches, Guangzhou R&F in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 40% versus Guangzhou R&F 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Guangzhou R&F 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.199 / defence 0.911 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.786 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 14 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 49% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou R&F 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Guangzhou R&F 4.76. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 14% | Guangzhou R&F 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 49% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou R&F 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 / Guangzhou R&F 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.199 / def 0.911 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.786 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Guangzhou R&F xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:15 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 49% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.20) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.79x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.29
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.92 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 9W 4D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 5W 6D 4L from 15 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guangzhou R&F.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.40 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.71 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.71 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 29% (Guangzhou R&F) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 29% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 57%; Guangzhou R&F in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 29% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 29% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou R&F 1-0 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou R&F landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 49% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou R&F 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 53%, Guangzhou R&F 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.