SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 5 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Aerbin to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.095 / defence 0.969 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.704 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 0.793 / away 1.164. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 4 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 39% | Draw 39% | Dalian Aerbin 22%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.56 | Draw 2.56 | Dalian Aerbin 4.55. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 39% | Draw 39% | Dalian Aerbin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.13 / Dalian Aerbin 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.095 / def 0.969 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.704 / def 1.300 | league avg home 0.793 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 39% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 22% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.09x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
39%
2.53
39%
2.58
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
1.92
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.53
39%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.79 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 39% | Draw 39% | Dalian Aerbin 22%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.