SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.259 / defence 1.111 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 0.836 / away 1.256. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 3 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 31% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 36%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Changchun Yatai 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 31% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 / Changchun Yatai 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.259 / def 1.111 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / def 1.172 | league avg home 0.836 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 31% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.26x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.96x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
31%
3.25
33%
2.99
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.58
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.34 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at SHANGHAI SIPG's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.23 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.26 / defence 1.11 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 31% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.