Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua host Shandong Luneng at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shanghai Shenhua register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, Shandong Luneng 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 39% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.33 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.925 / defence 0.940 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.115 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.382. Data: 34 Shanghai Shenhua games / 34 Shandong Luneng games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Shandong Luneng 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.33 / Shandong Luneng 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.925 / def 0.940 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.115 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Shandong Luneng xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 33% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.93) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.51
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Shandong Luneng xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.45 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 24W 18D 14L from 56 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 40W 9D 7L across 56 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shanghai Shenhua heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 14W 8D 6L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 16W 6D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.39 scored and 0.80 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Shanghai Shenhua's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 18D 14L in their last 56 games (1.61 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.79 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jul 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Shandong Luneng 4-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Shandong Luneng 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 57% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Shandong Luneng 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.33 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 39%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Shanghai Shenhua winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.