Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Lifan make the trip to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
Chongqing Lifan have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chongqing Lifan have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shanghai Shenhua's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chongqing Lifan — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 62% versus Chongqing Lifan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Chongqing Lifan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.885 / defence 1.067 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.753 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shanghai Shenhua games / 14 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 41% | Draw 32% | Chongqing Lifan 27%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Chongqing Lifan 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Chongqing Lifan 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 41% | Draw 32% | Chongqing Lifan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 / Chongqing Lifan 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.885 / def 1.067 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.753 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Chongqing Lifan xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan?
Shanghai Shenhua 4 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 41% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.89x the league average against Chongqing Lifan's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.75x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.10
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.35
1.03
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.03 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 7W 5D 4L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Lifan's form line: 3W 3D 10L from 16 games, 0.75 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chongqing Lifan.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, Chongqing Lifan have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.06 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.88 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Chongqing Lifan 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 50% (Chongqing Lifan).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Chongqing Lifan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 75% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 50% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Chongqing Lifan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Chongqing Lifan 4-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.31 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.03 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 41% | Draw 32% | Chongqing Lifan 27%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Chongqing Lifan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.