Shandong Luneng 2-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.60 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.30 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 5–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 51% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 62% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.80 xG and Henan Jianye 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.207 / defence 1.031 | Henan Jianye attack 0.900 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.385. Henan Jianye bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Shandong Luneng games / 34 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Henan Jianye 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.80 / Henan Jianye 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.207 / def 1.031 | Henan Jianye attack 0.900 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 50% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Record (4 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.90x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.34
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.09
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
4%
22.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.28 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 63 games, going 40W 13D 10L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 26W 3D 2L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 13D 10L in their last 63 games (2.11 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.61 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 42%, Henan Jianye 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Shandong Luneng) and 42% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 42% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.80 xG and Henan Jianye 1.28 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 62%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.