Shandong Luneng 2-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Championship Round - 5 as Shandong Luneng welcome Hebei Zhongji to Yuexiushan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Yuexiushan Stadium: 8W 1D 0L from 9 Super League appearances (2.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 5–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Hebei Zhongji 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 56% | Hebei Zhongji 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.46 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.122 / defence 1.041 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.710 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shandong Luneng games / 14 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Hebei Zhongji 4.55. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 56% | Hebei Zhongji 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.46 / Hebei Zhongji 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.122 / def 1.041 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.710 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.12) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.25
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.41
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
5%
19.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.95 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 18 games, going 14W 3D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 8W 1D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.78 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 games (2.50 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.78 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 56%, Hebei Zhongji 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shandong Luneng) and 33% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 33%; Hebei Zhongji in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 2-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.46 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 31% | Hebei Zhongji 22%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 56%, Hebei Zhongji 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.