Shandong Luneng 4-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Shandong Luneng's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Shandong Luneng, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Changchun Yatai — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 48% versus Changchun Yatai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.290 / defence 0.746 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.344 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.265. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shandong Luneng games / 46 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 23%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Changchun Yatai 4.35. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 30% | Changchun Yatai 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.98 / Changchun Yatai 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.290 / def 0.746 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.344 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 29 June 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 53% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Record (4 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.34x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.17
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.25
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
3%
31.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.27 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 56 games, going 40W 9D 7L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.48 PPG from 56 outings (22W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 24W 3D 1L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 games (2.30 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.68 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 39%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Shandong Luneng and 68% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 68% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.29 / defence 0.75 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.34 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 23%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.64 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.