Qingdao Youth Island 3-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 56% | Sichuan Jiuniu 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.893 / defence 1.266 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.636 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.787 / away 1.332. Data: 25 Qingdao Youth Island games / 25 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.00. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.893 / def 1.266 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.636 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.787 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 50% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.00
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.68
1.07
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.07 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Youth Island's recent record stands at 6W 7D 12L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.00 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Youth Island have managed 2W 6D 5L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.88 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 0.92 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 62%, Sichuan Jiuniu 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 38% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 31% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 38% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 56%, Sichuan Jiuniu 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.