Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island in Super League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Qingdao Youth Island's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's (from Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Qingdao Youth Island 1–4 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 64% and Beijing Guoan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 54% | Beijing Guoan 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.851 / defence 1.295 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.856 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.314. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 22 games and Beijing Guoan's last 52.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.74 | Draw 3.91 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 60% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 / Beijing Guoan 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.851 / def 1.295 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.856 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.85) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 22 games and Beijing Guoan's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.91
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.88
1.46
Beijing Guoan xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.46 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 12W 4D 6L from 22 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Youth Island.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 0.91 PPG from their last 11 home games (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 3D 4L from their last 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.82 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 64%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 4D 6L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 0.91 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 4-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 54%, Beijing Guoan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 36% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 36%; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 54% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 36% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 54% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.46 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 54%, Beijing Guoan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.